Forecasting the flooding dynamics of flatwoods salamander breeding wetlands under future climate change scenarios

View article
Biodiversity and Conservation

Main article text

 

Introduction

Materials & Methods

Study sites

Water level data

Current climate data

Hydrologic model

Model validation

Predicting hydrologic regime from future climate data

Results

Model fitting

Model parameters

Future predictions

Discussion

Conclusions

Supplemental Information

Additional details about water level monitoring in pine flatwoods wetlands on Eglin Air Force Base, Florida

DOI: 10.7717/peerj.16050/supp-1

Additional details of model results for models describing hydrologic regime in pine flatwoods wetlands on Eglin Air Force Base, Florida

Median, lower, and upper 95% highest density posterior distributions for model parameters and wetland basins. Model parameters included an intercept (α), an error term (σ), precipitation (βRAIN), an autoregression term (βAR1), total precipitation over the previous seven days (βWEEKRAIN), the 12-month standardized precipitation-evapotranspiration index (βSPEI), potential evapotranspiration (βPET), and associated interactions and quadratic effects.

DOI: 10.7717/peerj.16050/supp-2

Plots describing performance of models predicting water levels in ephemeral wetlands on Eglin Air Force Base, Florida

(A, B) Model accuracy for predicted water levels was estimated by normalized root mean squared error (NRMSE) and (C, D, E, F) for the prediction of length of presence of surface water by the proportion of days that correctly predicted to either have or not have water. Results are divided by the number of training (A, C, D) or testing (B, E, F) data points (daily observations) used in the model. Error bars in A, B, C, and E represent the upper and lower 95% highest density posterior and points represent median values, while points in D and F are variance estimates. Note that the y-axis scale is different for all six panels.

DOI: 10.7717/peerj.16050/supp-3

Median predicted date of basin filling from 2025 to 2100 for 35 wetlands on Eglin Air Force Base, Florida

Lines represent smoothed (using the loess function in R) predictions based on 6,000 iterations of Bayesian first order autoregressive models that each simulated conditions under three global climate model (Hadley Centre Global Environment Model 2 Earth Systems [HadGEM2-ES], Hadley Centre Global Environment Model 2 Carbon Cycle [HadGEM2-CC], and the Community Climate System model version 4 [CCSM4]) and two emission scenario (RCP4.5: assumes a peak in carbon emissions in 2040; RCP8.5: assumes emissions will continue to increase throughout the 21st century) combinations (six total scenarios). Plots show overall variability in model predictions across all study wetlands. Fill dates were calculated relative to the Reticulated Flatwoods Salamander (Ambystoma bishopi) breeding season (1 November to 31 May) as days after November 1. Wetlands are grouped based on general fill date conditions: variable across approximately three months (A), two months (B), or one month (C) after November 1, and asterisks at the end of the wetland name indicate wetlands that have been confirmed occupied by flatwoods salamanders during the previous 10 years.

DOI: 10.7717/peerj.16050/supp-4

Water level monitoring data from 35 pine flatwoods wetlands on Eglin Air Force Base, Florida

DOI: 10.7717/peerj.16050/supp-5

Additional Information and Declarations

Competing Interests

The authors declare there are no competing interests.

Author Contributions

Houston C. Chandler conceived and designed the experiments, prepared figures and/or tables, authored or reviewed drafts of the article, and approved the final draft.

Nicholas M. Caruso conceived and designed the experiments, performed the experiments, analyzed the data, prepared figures and/or tables, authored or reviewed drafts of the article, and approved the final draft.

Daniel L. McLaughlin conceived and designed the experiments, authored or reviewed drafts of the article, and approved the final draft.

Yan Jiao performed the experiments, analyzed the data, authored or reviewed drafts of the article, and approved the final draft.

George C. Brooks conceived and designed the experiments, authored or reviewed drafts of the article, and approved the final draft.

Carola A. Haas conceived and designed the experiments, authored or reviewed drafts of the article, and approved the final draft.

Field Study Permissions

The following information was supplied relating to field study approvals (i.e., approving body and any reference numbers):

Fieldwork and access to field sites were approved by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife

Service and Jackson Guard (Eglin Air Force Bases Natural Resources Division).

Data Availability

The following information was supplied regarding data availability:

The raw data are available in the Supplemental Files.

Funding

Funding was provided by the Department of Defense Strategic Environmental Research and Development Program (RC-2703), and initial water level monitoring was supported by the Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission’s Aquatic Habitat Restoration and Enhancement program. This research was supported by the intramural research program of the U.S. Department of Agriculture, National Institute of Food and Agriculture, McIntire-Stennis project (VA-136640). The findings and conclusions in this publication have not been formally disseminated by the U. S. Department of Agriculture and should not be construed to represent any agency determination or policy. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.

1 Citation 1,231 Views 43 Downloads

MIT

Your institution may have Open Access funds available for qualifying authors. See if you qualify

Publish for free

Comment on Articles or Preprints and we'll waive your author fee
Learn more

Five new journals in Chemistry

Free to publish • Peer-reviewed • From PeerJ
Find out more