The seasonal reproduction number of dengue fever impacts of climate on transmission
- Published
- Accepted
- Subject Areas
- Biosphere Interactions, Climate Change Biology, Computational Biology, Infectious Diseases, Mathematical Biology
- Keywords
- Dengue, Reproduction Number, Mathematical Model
- Copyright
- © 2016 Polwiang
- Licence
- This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, reproduction and adaptation in any medium and for any purpose provided that it is properly attributed. For attribution, the original author(s), title, publication source (PeerJ Preprints) and either DOI or URL of the article must be cited.
- Cite this article
- 2016. The seasonal reproduction number of dengue fever impacts of climate on transmission. PeerJ Preprints 4:e756v5 https://doi.org/10.7287/peerj.preprints.756v5
Abstract
Background: The dengue fever is a mosquito-borne viral disease and a regular epidemic in Thailand. The peak of the dengue epidemic period is around June to August during the rainy season. It is believed that the climate is an important factor for dengue transmission.Method: A mathematical model for vector-host infectious disease was used to calculate the impacts of climate to the transmission of dengue virus. In this study, the data of climate and dengue fever cases were derived from Chiang Mai during 2008-2015, Thailand. The value of seasonal reproduction number was calculated to evaluate the potential, severity and persistence of dengue infection.Results: The mosquito population was increasing exponentially from the start of the rainy season in early May and reached its the peak in late June. The simulations suggest that the greatest potential for the dengue transmission occurs when the temperature is 28.9ºC. The seasonal reproduction numbers were larger than one from late March to end of August and reaching the peak in June. The highest incidences occurred in August due to the delay of transmission humans-mosquito-humans. Increasing mean temperature by 1.2ºC, the number of incidences increases 43.7%. However, a very high or very low temperature reduces the number of infection.Discussion and Conclusion: The results show that the dengue infection depends on the seasonal variation of the climate. The rainfall provides places for the mosquitoes to lay eggs and develop to adult stage. The temperature plays an important role in the life cycle and behavior of the mosquitoes. A very high or very low temperature reduces the risk of the dengue infection.
Author Comment
Correct some typing errors in the V3 and V4
This is final version.
In the original version, the vertical transmission was too high for some experimental reports (0.11-0.18).The vertical transmission was 0.5 in the original version, changed to 0.15 which I believe is more reasonable.Also some parameters are also slightly changed to fit the data.
The dengue incidence data is utilized from 2008-2015 which corresponds to the latest report.The purpose of this pre-print is to show the new model. The results are mostly similar, the graph are the same shape, and the numerical results are not much different.