Current and future trends in socio-economic, demographic and governance factors affecting global primate conservation

Population in rural and urban areas

Significantly, population growth in primate range regions is expected to occur in urban areas with populations in rural areas declining dramatically (Fig. 5). A sizeable segment of the population in the Neotropics (88%) and Southeast Asia (66%) will reside in urban areas by 2050. The values for mainland Africa are 59%, for Madagascar 53%, and for South Asia also 53% (Fig. 5). While more than half of the increase in the urban population in primate harboring countries is caused by in situ population increase, migration from rural areas into cities also is a contributing factor (Hecht et al., 2015).

While cities cover <2% of the earth’s surface, they use about 78% of the energy produced, including large quantities of nonfood and food products, much of which is wasted, adding to environmental pressures locally and globally (Ulgiati & Zacaro, 2019). Urbanization produces land-cover changes (Grimm et al., 2008) that drive habitat loss, air and water pollution, and the extinction of local animal and plant populations (Hahs et al., 2009). Urban growth entails the movement of goods and services into and out of cities, necessitating the construction of extensive road and rail networks, and the conversion of nearby forests for purposes of agricultural production and industry (Seto, Kaufmann & Woodcock, 2000; Seto et al., 2011). A study of 41 countries in the humid tropics found that forest loss was positively associated with both urban population growth and the export of agricultural products (e.g., cattle, crops) and non-food crops (e.g., palm oil, corn and sugar cane for biofuels), much of which were sold to international markets (DeFries et al., 2010). As cities grow, so do job opportunities. However, many of the new immigrants to large urban centers are the rural poor, who are under-educated and only qualify for low paying jobs in agriculture, manufacturing, and the service sector (Sánchez-Triana et al., 2013). Moreover, there is evidence indicating that urban expansion near protected areas pose important conservation challenges to biodiversity, as protected areas become islands or isolated refuges with limited buffer zones and barriers to animal migration and gene flow (Seto et al., 2011).

The continued growth and expansion of urban areas is expected to exacerbate the negative consequences that deforestation and habitat fragmentation, bushmeat hunting, and capture for the local, regional and international pet trade will have on primate population decline. Given recent assessments that the capture, killing, and trade of wild animals in urban “wet markets” likely represents the source point for the COVID-19 pandemic (Shereen et al., 2020), it is clear that establishing and enforcing laws that promote reforestation in order to expand the physical separation between urban areas and wildlife refuges, and the strict control of unsustainable hunting and live animal capture, are essential components of a successful urban planning strategy. Such a strategy also must include the development of new technologies to increase agricultural yields on non-forested lands and to reduce food waste to more efficiently satisfy the demands for agricultural products in urban areas (DeFries et al., 2010; Seto et al., 2011).

Additional forest loss has resulted from the expansion of dams and mega dams to supply water and electricity to urban areas and nearby industries and to agricultural land (Laurance et al., 2014; Benchimol & Peres, 2015). This has been accompanied by expansion of road and rail networks to transport people, goods and services to resident human populations in urban areas (Alamgir et al., 2017; Clancy, 2008; Laurance, 2006; UNSTATS, 2019). Moreover, the establishment of irregular or unauthorized settlements in the vicinity of cities is an additional factor adding to the cities’ footprint, increasing human-primate conflict and primate population decline (Boyle, 2008).

Although cities harbor poverty, they also are places of innovation and knowledge, and can offer economic opportunities in terms of employment and improved living and health conditions (https://sustainabledevelopment.un.org/topics/sustainablecities). Cities also offer spaces for social and political involvement and the fusion of cultures, reasons why city life is more desirable to some people, especially young adults. For example, a study of 27 countries in Sub-Saharan Africa demonstrated that for the average child under five years of age, living in a rural area and isolated from basic health services and adequate sanitation, the mortality rate (deaths per 1,000 live births) was 49.2% compared to 21.8% for children living in urban areas (Issaka, Agho & Renzaho, 2017).

Unfortunately, rapid urbanization in primate range countries has resulted in a growing number of slum dwellers, a reduction in food security, and inadequate and overburdened infrastructure and services (such as waste collection and water and sanitation systems, roads and transport), leading to unhealthy levels of air and water pollution and unplanned urban sprawl (UNSTATS, 2019). Crowding also can have a devastating effect on disease transmission, especially in developing nations (Hotez, 2017). We found that the proportion of the urban population living in slums is high in primate harboring nations when compared with developed nations. In Madagascar, 77% of the urban population lives in slums, in Sub-Saharan Africa 55%, in South Asia 30%, in Southeast Asia 26% and 20% in the Neotropics. In contrast, in Canada, the United States, and the EU, the percentage of the population living in slums is less than 1% (World Bank, 2020a). While cities and metropolitan areas are centers of economic growth—contributing about 60 per cent of global GDP, they also account for some 70 per cent of global carbon emissions and over 60 per cent of resource use (Li et al., 2019; UNSTATS, 2019). Policy decisions and urban planners need to prioritize reducing the ecological footprint of city residents and industry in order to promote ‘green’ cities, reduce the urban footprint on biodiversity, and actively engage in programs designed to restore native forests (Butler & Laurance, 2008).

Unsurprisingly, the increase in human population size means that more food, water, energy, living space and public health services are required together with additional housing, transportation hubs and networks, road building, and other essential services (Crist, Mora & Engelman, 2017). At the same time, while the human population in developed economies is not growing as rapidly, their economies continue to expand in order to sustain and increase the quality of life of their citizens (UNDESA, 2019a). This has important consequences for biodiversity conservation because these developed nations are characterized by overconsumption and excessive waste (Neff, Spiker & Truant, 2015) of agricultural and nonagricultural commodities, much of which are produced in primate range countries (Estrada, Garber & Chaudhary, 2019). This pattern of “colonial” exploitation, that is, the over-extraction of resources, taking advantage of cheap labor, and environmental degradation, has significantly taxed the natural resources of most primate range nations, and resulted in food insecurity as food is grown to support global supply chains rather than for local consumption (Chaudhary & Kastner, 2016; Chaudhary & Mooers, 2018).

GDPPC in primate range countries

Successful and longstanding primate conservation requires economic resources, satisfactory conservation strategies, efficient implementation of environmental law, public interest, and the practice of sustained and long-term conservation-oriented research. However, if poverty and income inequality are prevalent in the population, primate conservation will not be a primary social concern. Information on the growth of GDPPC between 1960 and 2018 indicates an enormous gap between countries in primate range regions and the top 25 developed nations of the world (Fig. 6; Table S5). And although there has been a gradual increase in the average GDPPC between 1960 and 2018 in countries in primate range regions, only the Neotropics and Southeast Asia have experienced gains that closely match the world average (Fig. 6). In contrast, in mainland Africa, Madagascar and South Asia the level of GDPPC has remained stagnant since 1960, with a small increase between 2000 and 2018 (Fig. 6; Table S5), probably the result of increased exports of agricultural and nonagricultural commodities (Estrada, Garber & Chaudhary, 2019). Yet, in many cases gains in GDPPC in primate range countries such as Brazil, Argentina, Indonesia, Malaysia and China have occurred at the cost of severe and on-going environmental degradation (Table S2; Estrada et al., 2018; Estrada, Garber & Chaudhary, 2019). In general, weak per capita income growth is anticipated over the next few years in mainland Africa, Madagascar and South Asia, regions that harbor a significant part of the global population living in extreme poverty (UNDESA, 2019b). The steep growth curve in the GDPPC for the top 25 developed nations in the world is notable, indicating significant improvements in the standard of living of their populations, and significant differences in the quality of life between citizens in primate range nations and citizens in developed nations (Fig. 6).

Data on the GDPPC for all primate countries at a decadal interval (2010–2100) under five different shared socioeconomic pathway models (SSP-1 to SSP-5) (Samir & Lutz, 2017) show that the highest increase in GDPPC is forecasted under the SSP-5 scenario, which assumes rapid and unconstrained growth in economic output, energy use, and environmental degradation. However, relatively high GDPPC for primate range countries also is predicted under the SSP-1 scenario, which is based on sustainability-focused growth and greater income equality (see Table S11). Similar to projections of population growth, the SSP-1 scenario is a win-win for human development and primate conservation because the growth in GDPPC under this scenario minimizes tropical deforestation and biodiversity loss (Van Vuuren et al., 2017; Estrada, Garber & Chaudhary, 2019).

The HDI

Information from the 2018 UN HDI (a combination of life expectancy, school enrollment, literacy, and income, with the lowest human development = 0 and the highest = 1.0) indicates that while the average HDI has increased over the past decades in all primate regions, Madagascar and countries in mainland Africa and South Asia have remained consistently low and below the world’s average (Fig. 6). The HDI for the Neotropics and Southeast Asia has tended to increase, but this has been driven by a small set of countries including Japan, Brunei, Singapore, Taiwan, Argentina, and Costa Rica (Fig. 7). These are among the least primate-rich countries per region. In contrast, the average HDI values for the 25 top developed nations in the world have consistently increased over the same period and are well above the average of all primate range regions (Fig. 7).

Citizens of the nations that rank higher on this index have a higher level of education, a longer lifespan, and a higher gross national income per capita than citizens of nations with a lower HDI (UNDP, 2020). Low levels of development are commonly associated with political instability, extreme income inequality, and limited environmental protection (Alsamawi et al., 2014; UNDP, 2019). Thus, it is clear that despite the enormous biological wealth and natural resources of primate range countries, poverty, deep-rooted income inequality, illiteracy, low levels of education, political instability, and over-exploitation of their natural resources by the consumer nations of the world make the task of preserving primates and their habitats extremely difficult (Alsamawi et al., 2014; UNDP, 2019).

The challenges of devoting sufficient resources to environmental and biodiversity conservation in the majority of primate range countries is further underscored by the percentage of the population living on less than US $1.90 a day, an internationally recognized indicator of extreme poverty (World Bank, 2020b). The World Bank indicates that in 2015 Madagascar had the largest percentage (77%) of the population living on less than US $1.90 a day, followed by mainland Africa (41%) and in South Asia (14%) (Fig. 8A). Individuals in the Neotropics (3.9%) and in Southeast Asia (2.3%) have fared better, and are below the world’s average (10%). In Europe (n = 28), the US and Canada the proportion of the population living on less than US$1.90 a day was essentially zero (World Bank, 2020b; Fig. 8A).

Moreover, low human development and high poverty levels in primate range regions are related to high levels of mortality for children under five years of age. In 2018, under-five mortality in mainland Africa was 2.86 million. In South Asia, it totaled 1.47 million children (Fig. 8B). In the Neotropics and in Southeast Asia under-five mortality was significantly lower, 0.17 million and 0.46 million, respectively. In contrast, in developed nations under-five mortality was 0.015 million (Fig. 8B; Table S7) (World Bank, 2020c; UNIGME, 2018). High levels of poverty and its consequences for under-five mortality underscore the challenges faced in prioritizing primate conservation in primate range regions. Poor governance promotes poverty, civil unrest, food insecurity unsustainable use of natural resources, hunting, the illegal wildlife trade, and the necessity to colonize intact forest areas, including legally designated protected areas, thus expanding pressure on primate habitats and populations (Adams & Hutton, 2007; Kates & Dasgupta, 2007).

Food security

Food security in primate range countries is a critical factor affecting primate conservation. High levels of population growth, poverty, inequality, and corruption, accompanied by extensive loss of natural capital, have a direct impact on food security. The World Food Summit of 1996 defined food security as the situation in which people have physical, social and economic access to sufficient and nutritive food that meets their dietary requirements for a healthy and active life (http://www.fao.org/WFS/). Using this internationally accepted standard, the GFSI of The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited (GFSI, 2019; https://foodsecurityindex.eiu.com/Index) has integrated the core issues of affordability, availability, quality and safety into a quantitative and qualitative model that evaluates these drivers of food security in developing and developed countries. The index also considers a country’s exposure to the impacts of a changing climate; its susceptibility to natural resource risks; and how the country is adapting to these risks. The GFSI is based on data from 113 countries and ranges from zero (lowest food security) to 100 (highest food security) (https://foodsecurityindex.eiu.com/Index).

The GFSI for primate range countries for which the index is available indicates that lowest values are found for Madagascar and mainland Africa, followed by South Asia, the Neotropics, and Southeast Asia. A few Southeast Asian nations such as Japan, Singapore and Malaysia have food security indices comparable to those of Western nations. The average value of the index for primate range regions was 53.9, while the GFSI for 25 of the most developed nations in the world was 80.8 (Fig. 9; Table S8). The United Nations expects that in 2020, 47 of 91 primate range countries (52%), the majority of which are in Africa, will encounter acute food insecurity (GNAFC/FSIN, 2020). Given the economic effects of the coronavirus, it is likely that food insecurity in other primate regions also will increase (Torero-Cullen, 2020). Human populations in primate range countries lag far behind developed nations in GDPPC, in human development, and in food security despite the fact they produce billions of metric tonnes of food per year. This is a direct result of land use practices that are controlled by a small set of multinational corporations and a system of industrial agricultural production for global export (including beef) to satisfy overconsumption by developed and developing nations rather than for domestic consumption (Estrada, Garber & Chaudhary, 2019; Chen, Chaudhary & Mathys, 2020).

Here it is important to note that poverty, corruption, poor governance, and income inequality in many primate range countries, along with debt that must be repaid in dollars, have led countries to allow large areas of their land converted to agricultural and nonagricultural commodities production (e.g., soy fields, oil palm and rubber plantations and the extraction of minerals, fossil fuels and gems) mainly for global markets (Bradshaw & Brook, 2014; Chen et al., 2020; Dietz & Rosa, 1997; Estrada, Garber & Chaudhary, 2019). Land use dedicated to the production and export of food and nonfood commodities by primate range nations has not increased local food security, human safety, or political stability (FAO, 2019a, 2019b).

Adding to the global challenges of income inequality, access to adequate food and health care, conflict, climate impacts, and unforeseen events like the COVID-19 pandemic are expected to have a greater negative impact on health and food security in primate range nations than in more prosperous countries (GNAFC/FSIN, 2020). COVID-19 is expected to overwhelm civil society, increase food insecurity, and devastate the healthcare systems and livelihoods of millions of citizens who work in the informal agricultural and nonagricultural sectors of the economy across the globe (GNAFC/FSIN, 2020). The COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in the disruption of local and global food chains and this may result in scarcities of food and higher prices (Torero-Cullen, 2020), which in turn may lead to increased hunting of bushmeat and an expansion of wildlife trade in many primate range nations (Lappin et al., 2020).

Clearly, primate-range countries must develop a more balanced set of national priorities to build their internal economies in order to ensure food security for their growing human populations. These same countries must also safeguard their biodiversity by building their economies using sustainable practices, green technologies, reducing water, air and soil pollution, and mitigating the effects of climate change on their citizens and environment (Estrada et al., 2017; Sillman et al., 2019). While poverty, food security and protection of primate habitats are intricately linked, there are other social factors at play that impede human well-being, protecting biodiversity, and prioritizing primate conservation. These are corruption and poor governance.

Corruption

Corruption is a major threat to humans, biodiversity, and the environment because it destabilizes democratic institutions, causes governmental and societal uncertainty, and destroys public trust. Corruption rewards criminal activity, weakens economic development, promotes inequality, and hinders country-wide prosperity (UNDOC, 2020). Corruption adversely affect human communities and leads to policies and practices that foster habitat degradation and loss of biodiversity. It also contributes to poverty and to social and political volatility. The more a country’s political system is affected by corruption, the poorer the country’s environmental performance (Murshed & Mredula, 2018; Transparency International, 2020).

The Corruption Perceptions Index (CPI), which has been released annually by Transparency International since 1995, ranks countries by their perceived levels of public sector corruption, as validated by expert evaluations and attitude surveys. The CPI defines corruption as “the misuse of public power for private benefit” (Table S9). The 2019 Perception Corruption Index (PCI) of Transparency International (https://www.transparency.org; 0 = most corrupt, 100 = least corrupt) for primate range countries, for which PCI scores are available, and for the top 25 most developed countries indicates that high levels of corruption are widespread in primate range nations compared to the top 25 economies (Fig. 10A). The distribution of the 2019 PCI scores across primate range countries and in the 25 developed nations is shown in Fig. 10B. In 2019, the least corrupt country in the Neotropics was Costa Rica (CPI: 56) followed by Argentina (CPI: 45) and Suriname (CPI: 44). The most corrupt country was Venezuela (CPI: 16) (Fig. 10B; Table S9). In mainland Africa, Botswana, Rwanda and Namibia were the least corrupt (CPI: >50) and the most corrupt were Somalia (CPI: 9), South Sudan (CPI: 12), Equatorial Guinea (CPI: 16), Sudan (CPI: 16), Congo DR (CPI: 18), Guinea-Bissau (CPI: 18), Burundi (CPI: 19) and Republic of Congo (CPI: 19). For the remainder of mainland African countries, the CPI ranged from 20-45. Primates species-rich Madagascar had a CPI score of 24, indicating very high levels of corruption (Fig. 10B; Tables S9). In South Asia the CPI ranged from 15 in Yemen to 68 in Bhutan. In Southeast Asia the CPI ranged from 29 Myanmar/Lao to 85 in Singapore (Fig. 10B; Table S9).

Corruption is a major contributor to primate population decline because it results in incentives to misrepresent the negative consequences of environmental degradation and/or not comply with environmental laws. This has resulted in illegal deforestation and land speculation fostering poverty and criminal activities by individuals and corporations. In many cases these criminal enterprises are associated with the mining of precious metals and gems, which pollutes streams, lakes, rivers, and soil and promotes hunting, logging in protected areas and outside of government concessions, poaching, and the illegal primate pet trade (Human Rights Watch, 2019; Laurance, 2004; Estrada et al., 2018; Estrada, Garber & Chaudhary, 2019). Corruption hinders the conservation efforts of NGOs, governments, and local communities and undermines the capacity of guards and law enforcement to combat drivers of primate habitat loss and local species extirpation (Ivory, 2017; Packer & Polasky, 2018).

In many cases, laws are disregarded through bribery and extortion. In Madagascar, the illegal harvest and export of rosewood in protected areas has been enabled by political ineffectiveness and corruption (Freudenberger, 2010; Gore, Ratsimbazafy & Lute, 2013; Randriamalala & Liu, 2010; Schwitzer et al., 2014). Bushmeat and the trade for body parts are important drivers in the population decline of great ape species—bonobos, chimpanzees, and gorillas in Africa and orangutans in Indonesia (IUCN Red List, 2019). It was estimated that the domestic trade in primates for pets and bushmeat in Peru is likely to number in the hundreds of thousands per year, with larger-bodied primates being the main targets (Shanee, Mendoza & Shanee, 2017). Trading orangutans in Indonesia is a felony, but 440 confiscations in the last 25 years have led to only seven convictions with light sentences (Nijman, 2017). In short, corruption at various levels of society render ineffective the laws that protect wildlife and feed a vicious cycle across many levels of society. High levels of corruption seem to have an important impact on the quality of governance in primate range regions and make social reforms needed to enhance the health, income, and well-being of average citizens, impossible.

Governance indicators and implications for primate conservation

Good governance entails justly implementing the practices and laws that maintain the institutions and constitution of the country. This involves the process by which governments are chosen, scrutinized and replaced; the capability of the government to successfully create and apply sound policies; and the respect of people and the state for the institutions that govern social and economic interactions (World Bank, 2020d; European Commission, 2019). An examination of four key World Bank indicators of governance quality in 2018 (political stability and absence of violence/terrorism, government effectiveness, rule of law and control of corruption) found that all countries in primate range regions ranked significantly below the average value for 35 high-income countries. Sub-Saharan Africa and Madagascar ranked lowest among primate regions (Fig. 11). A global study showed that high governance scores frequently relate to lower rates of deforestation (Fischera, Giessenb & Günterc, 2020). Rule of law and control of corruption are critical factors in successfully establishing effective conservation programs. Countries will not be successful in implementing policies of conservation and environmental protection if government effectiveness and political stability are low. Irrespective of environmental laws and public sentiment, weak governance fosters the inability of environmental institutions to protect animal and plant biodiversity, safeguard ecosystems health, and promote a green economy.

Civil conflict and primate conservation

Tropical forests are one of the earth’s last frontiers. They are rich in natural resources, and they enable residents to maintain their traditional beliefs, economies, and cultures in balance with the environment. Many indigenous cultures view tropical forests as sacred places and view their role as stewards of the environment (Fuentes, 2012). Tropical forests are places of dynamic social, ecological, political, and economic change, which in some cases has led to armed conflict over forest resources and land (McNeely, 2003, 2008).

Here we examine the 2019 GPI of the Institute of Economics and Peace (https://economicsandpeace.org/). The GPI covers 99.7 per cent of the world’s population and uses 23 qualitative and quantitative indicators to measure the state of peace using three thematic domains, Ongoing Domestic and International Conflict (ODIC), Societal Safety and Security (SSS) and Militarization (IEPGPI, 2019). The 2019 GPI (one most peaceful, five least peaceful) for 91 countries harboring primates had, on average, higher values (GPI: 2.232) than did the top high-income 25 nations in the world (GPI: 1.523) (Fig. 12; Table S10), suggesting that primate countries more commonly face sustained civil conflict. Countries in South Asia and mainland Africa maintain the greatest conflict, followed by countries in the Neotropics. Among primate range nations, countries of Southeast Asia (GPI: 1.904) and Madagascar had the lowest values of the GPI (GPI: 1.867) (Fig. 12).

Civil conflict negatively affects primate population persistence due to random bombing, the use of toxic chemicals and defoliants, increased availability of firearms, and the upsurge in bushmeat hunting both by soldiers and displaced people as local supply chains breakdown (Douglas & Alie, 2014; Loucks et al., 2009). For example, the poaching of bonobos (Pan paniscus) and gorillas (Gorilla gorilla and Gorilla beringei) increased considerably in DRC and Rwanda as a result of ongoing civil wars (Douglas & Alie, 2014). In Cambodia, armed conflicts have severely affected populations of the black-shanked douc (Pygathrix nigripes) (Loucks et al., 2009). Heavily armed militias in DRC are currently fighting for ethnic and political control and, jointly with illegal miners, prospect for “conflict minerals” (e.g., coltan, tin, tantalum, tungsten and gold) and diamonds, and hunt primates for bushmeat (Gavin, 2017; Nellemann, Redmond & Refisch, 2010). Likewise, past border conflicts in Southeast Asia, including the war in Vietnam which lasted some 20 years, caused significant damage to the forest and wiped out entire wildlife populations (McNeely, 2003). At present 86% (19/22) of primate species in Vietnam are considered threatened (Table S1).

Civil conflict also alters traditional land use patterns and can lead to increased unregulated forest conversion. In northern Sumatra, between 1990 and 2010 human conflicts combined with forest fires and illegal and legal logging caused major reductions in forest cover (>30%) (Margono et al., 2012). Disputes over land rights, actions by corporation, and governmental policies also have led to forest burning and land-clearing in several primate range regions in Southeast Asia, Africa and the Neotropics endangering many primates (Lanjouw, 2014; Meijaard & Nijman, 2000; Supriatna et al., 2017; Human Rights Watch, 2019).

Clearly, civil unrest, inter-country wars, terrorism, and continued militarization contribute to the dislocation of the large numbers of innocent civilians resulting in refugee crises, increased poverty, insecurity, the spread of disease, environmental damage, and reduced food security. Under these conditions, primate conservation is not a priority and the lack of security and personal safety of citizens in these countries are amplified by prevailing corruption and low-quality governance (Figs. 10 and 11).