Air pollution forecasting with machine learning in post-disaster zones: A case study of PM2.5 in Turkey’s earthquake regions
Abstract
Air pollution continues to be a critical challenge for the environment and public health, particularly in regions that have been affected by natural disasters. This study aims to predict PM2.5 air pollution levels in the earthquake-affected provinces of Turkey following the February 6, 2023, earthquakes, using machine learning and deep learning techniques. Data were collected from air quality monitoring stations in several provinces, including Adana, Gaziantep, Hatay, Osmaniye, and Kahramanmaras. The study examines the relationship between PM 2.5 and other air pollutants (PM 10, SO2, CO, NO2, NOX, and NO) and meteorological parameters such as air temperature, humidity at the air, wind speed during the day, and air pressure. Different prediction models, including neural networks (FBNN, NARX) and deep learning methods (XGBoost, LGBM, RDF), are used, and their effectiveness in predicting PM 2.5 concentrations is compared. The results show that the Nonlinear Autoregressive Network with External Input (NARX) model, trained with the Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm, outperformed the other methods with an R² value of 0.92460 and an RMSE of 13.1873 μg/m³.