Ebola virus disease outbreak in Nigeria: transmission dynamics and rapid control

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1 Institute of Social and Preventive Medicine (ISPM), University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
2 World Health Organization - Nigeria Office, Lagos, Federal Republic of Nigeria
3 Federal Ministry of Health, Abuja, Federal Republic of Nigeria
4 Office of the Minister of State for Health, Federal Ministry of Health, Abuja, Nigeria
DOI
10.7287/peerj.preprints.569v3
Published
Accepted
Subject Areas
Computational Biology, Mathematical Biology, Epidemiology, Infectious Diseases, Public Health
Keywords
mathematical model, outbreak, Nigeria, basic reproduction number, Ebola virus disease
Copyright
© 2015 Althaus et al.
Licence
This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, reproduction and adaptation in any medium and for any purpose provided that it is properly attributed. For attribution, the original author(s), title, publication source (PeerJ PrePrints) and either DOI or URL of the article must be cited.
Cite this article
Althaus CL, Low N, Musa EO, Shuaib F, Gsteiger S. 2015. Ebola virus disease outbreak in Nigeria: transmission dynamics and rapid control. PeerJ PrePrints 3:e569v3

Abstract

International air travel has already spread Ebola virus disease (EVD) to major cities as part of the unprecedented epidemic that started in Guinea in December 2013. An infected airline passenger arrived in Nigeria on July 20, 2014 and caused an outbreak in Lagos and then Port Harcourt. After a total of 20 reported cases, including 8 deaths, Nigeria was declared EVD free on October 20, 2014. We quantified the impact of early control measures in preventing further spread of EVD in Nigeria and calculated the risk that a single undetected case will cause a new outbreak. We fitted an EVD transmission model to data from the outbreak in Nigeria and estimated the individual reproduction number of the index case at 9.0 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 5.2-15.6). We also found that the net reproduction number fell below unity 15 days (95% CI: 11-21 days) after the arrival of the index case. Hence, our study illustrates the time window for successful containment of EVD outbreaks caused by infected air travelers.

Author Comment

This version of the manuscript was submitted to Epidemics on 14th January 2015. The order of the authors has changed.