Potential range expansion of the invasive Red Shiner, Cyprinella lutrensis (Teleostei: Cyprinidae), under future climatic change

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  College of the Environment, Wesleyan University, Middletown, CT, USA
DOI
10.7287/peerj.preprints.216v1
Published
Accepted
Subject Areas
Aquaculture, Fisheries and Fish Science, Climate Change Biology, Ecology, Environmental Sciences, Freshwater Biology
Keywords
climate change, Maxent, invasive fishes, climate envelope model, Cyprinella lutrensis, biological invasions
Copyright
© 2014 Poulos et al.
Licence
This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, reproduction and adaptation in any medium and for any purpose provided that it is properly attributed. For attribution, the original author(s), title, publication source (PeerJ PrePrints) and either DOI or URL of the article must be cited.
Cite this article
Poulos HM, Chernoff B. 2014. Potential range expansion of the invasive Red Shiner, Cyprinella lutrensis (Teleostei: Cyprinidae), under future climatic change. PeerJ PrePrints 2:e216v1

Abstract

We built climate envelope models under contemporary and future climates to explore potential range shifts of the invasive Red Shiner-Cyprinella lutrensis. Our objective was to estimate aquatic habitat vulnerability to Red Shiner invasion in North America under future climatic change. We used presence records from within the species’ native and invaded distributions, a suite of bioclimatic predictor variables from three climate models (CCCma, CSIRO, and HadCM3), and maximum entropy modeling to generate potential distribution maps for the year 2080. Our model predicted major range expansion by Red Shiner under both low and high carbon emissions scenarios. The models exceeded average area under the receiver operator characteristic curve values of 0.92, indicating good overall model performance. The model predictions fell largely outside of areas of climatic extrapolation (i.e. regions predicted into environments different from training region) indicating good model performance. The results from this study highlight the large potential range expansion across North America of Red Shiner under future warmer climates.