A horizon scan of future threats and opportunities for pollinators and pollination
- Published
- Accepted
- Subject Areas
- Conservation Biology, Ecology, Natural Resource Management
- Keywords
- horizon scanning, pollinator, pollination, ecosystem services, conservation
- Copyright
- © 2016 Brown et al.
- Licence
- This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, reproduction and adaptation in any medium and for any purpose provided that it is properly attributed. For attribution, the original author(s), title, publication source (PeerJ Preprints) and either DOI or URL of the article must be cited.
- Cite this article
- (2016) A horizon scan of future threats and opportunities for pollinators and pollination. PeerJ Preprints 4:e2006v1 https://doi.org/10.7287/peerj.preprints.2006v1
Abstract
Background. Pollinators, which provide the agriculturally and ecologically essential service of pollination, are under threat at a global scale. Habitat loss and homogenisation, pesticides, parasites and pathogens, invasive species, and climate change have been identified as past and current threats to pollinators. Actions to mitigate these threats, e.g., agri-environment schemes and pesticide-use moratoriums, exist, but have largely been applied post-hoc. However, future sustainability of pollinators and the service they provide requires anticipation of potential threats and opportunities before they occur, enabling timely implementation of policy and practice to prevent, rather than mitigate, further pollinator declines. Methods. Using a horizon scanning approach we identified issues that are likely to impact pollinators, either positively or negatively, over the coming three decades. Results. Our analysis highlights six high priority, and nine secondary issues. High priorities are: (1) corporate control of global agriculture, (2) novel systemic pesticides, (3) novel RNA viruses, (4) the development of new managed pollinators, (5) more frequent heatwaves and drought under climate change, and (6) the potential positive impact of reduced chemical use on pollinators in non-agricultural settings. Discussion. While current pollinator management approaches are largely driven by mitigating past impacts, we present opportunities for pre-emptive practice, legislation, and policy to sustainably manage pollinators for future generations.
Author Comment
This manuscript has been submitted to PeerJ, and is currently under review.
Supplemental Information
Table S1
The initial list of potential issues identified by the horizon-scanning process. Issues with the same number were grouped together, based on similarity, for voting.