A horizon scan of future threats and opportunities for pollinators and pollination

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1 School of Biological Sciences, Royal Holloway University of London, Egham, United Kingdom
2 Conservation Science Group, Department of Zoology, University of Cambridge, Cambridge CB2 3QZ, United Kingdom
3 Institute for Biology, Martin-Luther-University Halle-Wittenberg, Halle, Germany
4 iDiv, German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research Halle-Jena-Leipzig, Leipzig, Germany
5 School of Biological Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol, United Kingdom
6 Cabot Institute, University of Bristol, Bristol, Bristol, United Kingdom
7 Department of Biological Sciences, Macquarie University, Sydney, Australia
8 European reference laboratory for honeybee health, Unit of honeybee pathology & Unit of coordination and support to surveillance, ANSES, Maisons-Alfort Cedex, France
9 Departamento de Zootecnia, Centro de Ciências Agrárias, Universidade Federal do Ceará, Fortaleza, Ceará, Brazil
10 School of Life Sciences, University of Sussex, Falmer, United Kingdom
11 The Xerces Society for Invertebrate Conservation, Portland, Oregon, United States of America
12 Berkeley Food Institute, Environmental Sciences Policy and Management, University of California Berkeley, Berkeley, California, United States of America
13 Institute of Apicultural Research, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing, China
14 Institute of Bee Health, Vetsuisse Faculty, University of Bern, Bern, Bern, Switzerland
15 The New Zealand Institute for Plant & Food Research Limited, Hamilton, New Zealand
16 Centre for Agri-Environmental Research, School of Agriculture, Policy and Development, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom
17 Department of Community Ecology, Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research - UFZ, Halle, Germany
18 South African National Biodiversity Institute, Kirstenbosch Research Centre, Claremont, South Africa
19 Percy FitzPatrick Institute of African Ornithology, DST/NRF Centre of Excellence, Department of Biological Sciences, University of Cape Town, Rondebosch, South Africa
20 Botany, School of Natural Sciences, Trinity College Dublin, the University of Dublin, Dublin, Ireland
DOI
10.7287/peerj.preprints.2006v1
Published
Accepted
Subject Areas
Conservation Biology, Ecology, Natural Resource Management
Keywords
horizon scanning, pollinator, pollination, ecosystem services, conservation
Copyright
© 2016 Brown et al.
Licence
This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, reproduction and adaptation in any medium and for any purpose provided that it is properly attributed. For attribution, the original author(s), title, publication source (PeerJ Preprints) and either DOI or URL of the article must be cited.
Cite this article
Brown MJ, Dicks LV, Paxton RJ, Baldock KCR, Barron AB, Chauzat M, Freitas BM, Goulson D, Jepsen S, Kremen C, Li J, Neumann P, Pattemore DE, Potts SG, Schweiger O, Seymour CL, Stout JC. 2016. A horizon scan of future threats and opportunities for pollinators and pollination. PeerJ Preprints 4:e2006v1

Abstract

Background. Pollinators, which provide the agriculturally and ecologically essential service of pollination, are under threat at a global scale. Habitat loss and homogenisation, pesticides, parasites and pathogens, invasive species, and climate change have been identified as past and current threats to pollinators. Actions to mitigate these threats, e.g., agri-environment schemes and pesticide-use moratoriums, exist, but have largely been applied post-hoc. However, future sustainability of pollinators and the service they provide requires anticipation of potential threats and opportunities before they occur, enabling timely implementation of policy and practice to prevent, rather than mitigate, further pollinator declines. Methods. Using a horizon scanning approach we identified issues that are likely to impact pollinators, either positively or negatively, over the coming three decades. Results. Our analysis highlights six high priority, and nine secondary issues. High priorities are: (1) corporate control of global agriculture, (2) novel systemic pesticides, (3) novel RNA viruses, (4) the development of new managed pollinators, (5) more frequent heatwaves and drought under climate change, and (6) the potential positive impact of reduced chemical use on pollinators in non-agricultural settings. Discussion. While current pollinator management approaches are largely driven by mitigating past impacts, we present opportunities for pre-emptive practice, legislation, and policy to sustainably manage pollinators for future generations.

Author Comment

This manuscript has been submitted to PeerJ, and is currently under review.

Supplemental Information

Table S1

The initial list of potential issues identified by the horizon-scanning process. Issues with the same number were grouped together, based on similarity, for voting.

DOI: 10.7287/peerj.preprints.2006v1/supp-1