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Chamikara MAP, Galappaththi A, Yapa RD, Nawarathna RD, Kodituwakku SR, Gunatilake J, Jayathilake AACA, Liyanage LH.2015. Fuzzy based binary feature profiling for modus operandi analysis. PeerJ PrePrints3:e1532v1https://doi.org/10.7287/peerj.preprints.1532v1
It is a well-known fact that some criminals follow perpetual methods of operations, known as modus operandi (MO) which is commonly used to describe the habits in committing something especially in the context of criminal investigations. These modus operandi are then used in relating criminals to other crimes where the suspect has not yet been recognized. This paper presents a method which is focused on identifying the perpetual modus operandi of criminals by analyzing their previous convictions. The method involves in generating a feature matrix for a particular suspect based on the flow of events. Then, based on the feature matrix, two representative modus operandi are generated: complete modus operandi and dynamic modus operandi. These two representative modus operandi will be compared with the flow of events of the crime in order to investigate and relate a particular criminal. This comparison uses several operations to generate two other outputs: completeness probability and deviation probability. These two outcomes are used as inputs to a fuzzy inference system to generate a score value which is used in providing a measurement for the similarity between the suspect and the crime at hand. The method was evaluated using actual crime data and four other open data sets. Then ROC analysis was performed to justify the validity and the generalizability of the proposed method. In addition, comparison with five other classification algorithms showed that the proposed method performs competitively with other related methods.
This is the first version of the paper. The paper is currently under review at PeerJ.
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