“I tawt I taw a puddy tat!": Extinction and uncertain sightings of the Barbary lion

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1 Mathematical Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
2 Durrell Institute of Conservation and Ecology, University of Kent, Kent, UK
3 Agence Nationale pour la Conservation de la Nature, Hamma Anassers, Algeria
4 Department of Biological and Environmental Sciences, Qatar University, Doha, Qatar
5 Italian Foundation of Vertebrate Zoology (FIZV), Roma, Italy
6 Office for Conservation of the Environment, Diwan of Royal Court, Oman
7 Department of Biology, Tufts University, Medford, MA, USA
8 Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Connecticut, Storrs, CT, USA
9 Durrell Institute of Conservation and Ecology, School of Anthropology and Conservation, University of Kent, Kent, UK
DOI
10.7287/peerj.preprints.1045v1
Published
Accepted
Subject Areas
Ecology, Mathematical Biology
Keywords
data quality, critically endangered, IUCN Red List, sighting record, possibly extinct, sighting uncertainty
Copyright
© 2015 Lee et al.
Licence
This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, reproduction and adaptation in any medium and for any purpose provided that it is properly attributed. For attribution, the original author(s), title, publication source (PeerJ PrePrints) and either DOI or URL of the article must be cited.
Cite this article
Lee TE, Black SA, Fellous A, Yamaguchi N, Angelici F, Al Hikmani H, Reed JM, Elphick CS, Roberts DL. 2015. “I tawt I taw a puddy tat!": Extinction and uncertain sightings of the Barbary lion. PeerJ PrePrints 3:e1045v1

Abstract

As species become rare and approach extinction, purported sightings can be controversial, especially when scarce management resources are at stake. We report a Bayesian model where we consider the probability that each individual sighting is valid. Obtaining these probabilities clearly requires a strict framework to ensure that they are as representative as possible. We used a process, which has proven to provide accurate estimates from a group of experts, to obtain probabilities for the validation of 35 sightings of the Barbary lion. We considered the scenario where experts are simply asked whether a sighting was valid, as well as when we asked them to score the sighting based on distinguishablity, observer competence, and verifiability. We find that asking experts to provide scores for these three aspects resulted in each sighting being considered more individually. Additionally, since the heavy reliance on the choice of prior can often be the downfall of Bayesian methods, we use an informed prior which changes with time.

Author Comment

This is a submission to PeerJ for review.

Supplemental Information

Detailed information on the Barbary lion sightings

DOI: 10.7287/peerj.preprints.1045v1/supp-1

The questions posed to the experts

DOI: 10.7287/peerj.preprints.1045v1/supp-2