Central Thesis: The U.S. faces a substantial and growing disadvantage in its ability to produce sufficient quantities of advanced weaponry and munitions to deter or succeed in a potential conflict with China. This disadvantage, compounded by an overreliance on Chinese suppliers, outdated acquisition processes, and a potentially over-optimistic view of U.S. technological superiority, poses a significant threat to American national security in the Indo-Pacific and globally.

Unexpected Findings: High Losses for All Sides: Despite achieving a successful defense of Taiwan in most scenarios, the wargames revealed consistently high losses for all participants – the U.S., Japan, Taiwan, and China. This challenges optimistic assumptions about the ability to achieve a "clean" victory. Importance of Taiwanese Ground Forces: The wargames underscored the critical role of Taiwanese ground forces in resisting the invasion, even in the face of overwhelming Chinese air and naval power. This highlights the need for Taiwan to prioritize strengthening its ground defenses. Limited Role of New Technologies: While hypersonic weapons and cyber capabilities played a role in some scenarios, their impact was generally less decisive than anticipated. This suggests that traditional military capabilities will likely remain dominant in a near-term conflict. Key Terms: Wargame: A simulation of a military operation or conflict, often involving two or more opposing forces, used to explore potential scenarios, test strategies, and identify critical vulnerabilities. Base Scenario: A wargame scenario that incorporates the most likely assumptions about key variables (e.g., political decisions, force postures, weapon performance). Excursion Case: An alternative assumption for a key variable, used to explore how changes in that assumption affect the outcome of the wargame. Taiwanese Autonomy: The continued existence of Taiwan as a self-governing political entity, separate from mainland China, considered the primary objective in the wargame. Pyrrhic Victory: A victory achieved at such a high cost that it ultimately negates the strategic benefits, potentially leading to long-term weakness and a decline in influence. A2/AD (Anti-Access/Area Denial): A military strategy aimed at preventing an adversary from entering or operating effectively within a specific geographic area, often by employing long-range precision strike weapons and sophisticated air and missile defenses. JASSM-ER (Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff Missile-Extended Range): A long-range, stealthy cruise missile employed by the U.S. Air Force, a key weapon for attacking airbases and ships. LRASM (Long-Range Anti-Ship Missile): A more advanced, anti-ship variant of the JASSM, specifically designed to target enemy warships.

Quantifying the "Numbers Game": A Grim Calculus of Conflict To further understand the "numbers game" highlighted in the previous sections, it is crucial to examine specific quantitative assessments that illustrate the potential force disparities, attrition rates, and timelines involved in various conflict scenarios. While such calculations cannot predict the exact course of a war, they offer a valuable framework for understanding the magnitude of the challenge facing the U.S. and the urgency of the situation.

1. Force Ratio Disparities: Air Power: The RAND Corporation's 2020 wargame scenario envisioned a PLAAF numerical advantage of 10:1 over U.S. forces if forced to operate from distant Andersen Air Force Base on Guam. Even if operating from closer bases in Japan, the PLAAF could still achieve a 3:1 advantage. These disparities underscore the need for significant U.S. investments in base hardening and the development of more resilient and dispersed basing concepts. Naval Forces: China's rapid naval buildup has resulted in the PLA Navy (PLAN) surpassing the U.S. Navy in total ship numbers. While exact numbers are subject to debate, the PLAN currently possesses over 340 warships and is projected to reach 440 by 2030, compared to a U.S. Navy fleet of under 300 warships. This numerical advantage, combined with China's development of advanced anti-ship ballistic missiles (ASBMs), poses a significant threat to U.S. carrier strike groups and other surface warships. Missiles: China has a vast and growing inventory of ballistic and cruise missiles capable of targeting U.S. bases in Japan and Guam, as well as warships in the Western Pacific. The exact numbers are classified, but open-source estimates suggest that China possesses hundreds, if not thousands, of these missiles.
2. Attrition Rates: Aircraft Losses: The CSIS wargames showed that the U.S. could lose hundreds of aircraft in the first few weeks of a conflict, primarily due to missile attacks on airbases. In one iteration, the U.S. lost over 700 aircraft, representing a significant portion of its operational fighter/attack strength. Ship Losses: U.S. Navy losses in the CSIS wargames typically included two aircraft carriers and 7-20 other major surface warships, highlighting the vulnerability of these platforms to advanced anti-ship missiles and submarine attacks. Personnel Casualties: The CSIS report estimated that U.S. personnel casualties could reach 6,960 in the base scenario, with potentially more than 3,200 killed. These numbers underscore the need for a realistic assessment of the potential human cost of a conflict with China and a willingness to sustain operations in the face of significant losses.
3. Timelines: Early Stages Decisive: The wargames consistently highlighted the critical importance of the first few weeks of a conflict. China's ability to rapidly cripple the U.S. amphibious fleet and establish a secure lodgment on Taiwan within this timeframe would significantly diminish the prospects for a successful defense. Long-Term Implications: Even a successful defense of Taiwan could have long-lasting strategic implications. Replacing lost military capabilities could take years, if not decades, and the U.S. would likely face a diminished global position and economic challenges in the aftermath of a major conflict.
4. Modeling Attrition with Lanchester Equations: The Lanchester square law can be used to illustrate the importance of numerical superiority in scenarios where concentrated firepower is employed, as is likely in air combat involving modern missile systems. The equation is as follows: Casualties_A / Casualties_B = (Strength_A / Strength_B)^2 This equation implies that, if Force A has twice the strength of Force B, it will inflict four times the casualties. Applying this concept to the air combat scenario envisioned in the RAND report, a 10:1 numerical advantage for the PLAAF would translate into a potentially devastating 100:1 casualty ratio in their favor. Adding Urgency to the Situation: These quantitative assessments paint a sobering picture of the challenges facing the U.S. in a potential conflict with China over Taiwan. The combination of force ratio disparities, high attrition rates, and the critical importance of the early stages of a conflict underscore the urgency of taking steps to strengthen U.S. defenses, modernize the defense industrial base, and deepen cooperation with allies.