Article Spotlight: Future climate-driven habitat loss and range shift of the Critically Endangered whitefin swellshark Cephaloscyllium albipinnum

Future climate-driven habitat loss and range shift of the Critically Endangered whitefin swellshark (Cephaloscyllium albipinnum)

Climate change is driving many species to shift their geographical ranges poleward to maintain their environmental niche. However, for endemic species with restricted ranges, like the Critically Endangered whitefin swellshark (Cephaloscyllium albipinnum), endemic to southeastern Australia, such dispersal may be limited. Nevertheless, there is a poor understanding of how C. albipinnum might spatially adjust its distribution in response to climate change or whether suitable refugia exist for this species in the future.

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“Most people will probably have never seen them, but whitefin swellsharks are an incredibly pretty species. However, despite them being listed as critically endangered, we actually know very little about their behavior given its habitats are deep in the ocean. What we do know is that they have been on our planet for a very long time, so will have had to adapt to changes in their environment before. However, the threat to their future survival now is very real unless we take urgent steps to protect them.”

Kerry Brown, University of Plymouth

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What is this research about?

This study examines how climate change will impact the habitat of the Critically Endangered whitefin swellshark (Cephaloscyllium albipinnum), a species found only in southeastern Australia. Using climate projection models, researchers predict how the shark’s range will shift and whether it will lose crucial habitat in the future.

Why is the whitefin swellshark at risk?

Unlike some species that can move to cooler waters as the ocean warms, the whitefin swellshark has a limited range and may struggle to adapt. If its current habitat becomes unsuitable, there may be few places left for it to survive. Understanding where future suitable habitat may exist is essential for its conservation.

How did researchers predict future habitat changes?

Scientists used a modelling approach called MaxEnt to map the whitefin swellshark’s habitat under:

Present-day conditions (2010–2020)

Future climate scenarios for 2040–2050 and 2090–2100 based on different levels of greenhouse gas emissions (six SSP scenarios).

They examined key environmental factors, such as ocean temperature and benthic productivity, to determine how the shark’s habitat might change.

What were the key findings?

Habitat shift: The shark’s range is expected to shift 72 km to 1,087 km east-southeast towards Tasmania (TAS) as waters warm.

Habitat loss: In most future scenarios, suitable habitat is expected to decline—especially under high-emission scenarios.

Severe decline under worst-case scenario: If emissions continue at current rates (SSP5-8.5), over 70% of suitable habitat will be lost by 2100.

Reduced protection in marine reserves: The overlap between the shark’s habitat and Marine Protected Areas (MPAs) will shrink, leaving just 2.5% of suitable habitat within MPAs under the worst-case scenario.

Why do these findings matter?

The whitefin swellshark is already at high risk of extinction, and habitat loss driven by climate change could push it even closer to disappearing. As its range shifts, it may face new threats, limited food sources, and increased competition in unfamiliar areas.

What can be done to protect the whitefin swellshark?

This research highlights the urgent need for adaptive conservation strategies, such as:

Expanding or relocating marine protected areas to account for changing habitat.

Implementing climate-resilient fisheries management to reduce human impact.

Conducting further research to monitor population trends and habitat suitability.

What is the key takeaway?

Without action, climate change could drastically reduce the whitefin swellshark’s habitat, increasing its risk of extinction. Conservation efforts must adapt to shifting environmental conditions to ensure the survival of this unique and endangered species.