TY - JOUR UR - https://doi.org/10.7717/peerj.2476 DO - 10.7717/peerj.2476 TI - A ‘post-honeymoon’ measles epidemic in Burundi: mathematical model-based analysis and implications for vaccination timing AU - Corey,Katelyn C. AU - Noymer,Andrew A2 - Sherman,Arthur DA - 2016/09/15 PY - 2016 KW - Measles KW - Epidemiology KW - Mathematical models KW - Vaccination KW - Demography AB - Using a mathematical model with realistic demography, we analyze a large outbreak of measles in Muyinga sector in rural Burundi in 1988–1989. We generate simulated epidemic curves and age × time epidemic surfaces, which we qualitatively and quantitatively compare with the data. Our findings suggest that supplementary immunization activities (SIAs) should be used in places where routine vaccination cannot keep up with the increasing numbers of susceptible individuals resulting from population growth or from logistical problems such as cold chain maintenance. We use the model to characterize the relationship between SIA frequency and SIA age range necessary to suppress measles outbreaks. If SIAs are less frequent, they must expand their target age range. VL - 4 SP - e2476 T2 - PeerJ JO - PeerJ J2 - PeerJ SN - 2167-8359 ER -